When Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the outspoken Health and Human Services secretary, rolled back federal COVID‑19 vaccine recommendations, a surprising chorus of Donald Trump supporters voiced both distrust of the coronavirus shots and resistance to broader vaccine restrictions.
The clash unfolded over the first week of September, when a Reuters‑Ipsos poll of 1,084 adults found only 24% believed the new guidance was rooted in science. 48% of Republicans said the policy “was not based on facts,” compared with just 5% of Democrats. The numbers matter because they flag a widening gap that could shape public‑health strategy for years.
Survey Reveals Deepening Divide
Conducted September 5‑9, the poll asked respondents whether they trusted the updated recommendations that now exclude healthy adults under 45 and pregnant people. The margin of error sat at ±3 points overall, widening to ±6 for each party subgroup.
- Only one in four Americans said the guidance reflected scientific evidence.
- 48% of Republicans, versus 5% of Democrats, thought the policy lacked a factual basis.
- Across the board, 48% of all respondents doubted the science behind the changes.
These figures echo an earlier KFF survey (January 7‑14, 2025) of 1,310 adults that showed 26% of Republican parents now delay or skip some childhood shots—a jump from 13% in 2023. By contrast, Democratic parents remained at roughly 15%.
What RFK Jr.’s Policy Changes Mean
Since taking office, Kennedy Jr. has dismissed the federal vaccine advisory panel that once advised the CDC on COVID‑19. The new guidance narrows eligibility to people with specific comorbidities, leaving most healthy adults without a clear path to vaccination.
Critics argue the move jeopardizes herd immunity, especially as the country wrestles with a late‑summer surge. Supporters, however, say it respects personal choice and curbs what they view as federal overreach.
Voices from the Ground: Texans and Beyond
In Houston, Texas, 38‑year‑old mother Loretta Torres epitomizes the nuanced stance. Her three sons are fully immunized against measles, mumps and rubella, yet she and her husband have never taken a COVID shot.
"I want parents to have the option to delay if they're scared, but ending all mandates feels kind of scary," Torres said.
Another participant, identified only as Sims, warned, "If a new pandemic hits, I think he'll change everything back." Their concerns hinge on a fear that politicized policy could swing back and forth with each administration.
Retiree Lazniarz managed to snag a COVID appointment after weeks of frustration. "What's coming out of Washington is very confusing," he lamented, noting that many people might give up trying altogether.
Expert Concerns Over School Mandates
Dr. Ball, a pediatric infectious‑disease specialist, warned that Florida’s effort to scrap school vaccine requirements could be "catastrophic." He painted a stark picture: children with cancer or autoimmune disorders rely on community immunity, and any erosion of that shield risks outbreaks.
"I feel horrible for parents of immunocompromised kids," Ball said. "Losing that herd protection is a nightmare."
Despite such alarms, a broad majority still backs school vaccine requirements. According to the Reuters‑Ipsos poll, 83% of all respondents favor some mandate, with 75% of Republicans in agreement—still a robust, if slightly lower, endorsement than the 93% seen among Democrats.
Implications for Future Vaccine Policy
The data suggest a paradox: many Trump voters distrust COVID‑19 shots yet overwhelmingly support traditional childhood immunizations and school mandates. This split could force policymakers to craft razor‑thin compromises that satisfy both autonomy‑focused conservatives and public‑health advocates.
Looking ahead, two trends loom large. First, the CDC’s credibility continues to erode among right‑leaning voters, a pattern documented since the pandemic’s start. Second, state‑level actions—like the West Coast’s unified vaccine recommendations that sidestep federal guidance—may become the new norm, creating a patchwork of policies across the country.
Whatever the path, the numbers are clear: public trust is fragile, and any misstep could tilt the balance toward either widespread hesitancy or renewed mandates.
Key Facts
- Survey dates: September 5‑9, 2024; 1,084 U.S. adults.
- Only 24% trust the new COVID‑19 guidance.
- 48% of Republicans say the policy lacks scientific basis.
- 26% of Republican parents now delay/skip childhood vaccines (up from 13% in 2023).
- 83% of all Americans support school vaccine requirements.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the new policy affect parents who want to vaccinate their children?
The narrowed COVID‑19 guidance does not change requirements for routine childhood shots like MMR. Parents can still access those vaccines through schools and pediatric offices, but the confusion around COVID‑19 eligibility may make some families hesitant to seek any vaccination without clearer federal direction.
Why are Republican voters more likely to distrust the science behind the recommendations?
Surveys trace the gap to years of right‑wing populist messaging that frames public‑health agencies as elite elites. A 2021 study showed Republicans respond better to vaccine endorsements from former President Trump than from President Biden, reinforcing partisan lenses on scientific data.
What impact could Florida’s vaccine‑policy changes have on neighboring states?
If Florida lifts school mandates, families from bordering states might cross the border to avoid requirements, potentially creating pockets of lower immunization rates. Health officials warn that such migration could spark localized outbreaks, especially of measles, which remains highly contagious.
What does the data say about the actual safety of COVID‑19 vaccines?
A Lancet Infectious Diseases analysis estimates COVID‑19 vaccines prevented roughly 14.4 million deaths worldwide in their first year. While a minority of respondents still claim the shots cause more harm than good, the scientific consensus remains that benefits far outweigh rare adverse events.
Will the federal government revisit the vaccine guidance after the summer surge?
Policy experts expect a review once hospitalization rates stabilize. However, any revision will likely be a political balancing act, trying to appease a skeptical Republican base while addressing the public‑health urgency voiced by experts like Dr. Ball.
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